GMDSS_METAREA7_INMARSAT ========== Caution: NAVIMAIL is not part of the Maritime Safety Information's operational data stream and should never be relied upon as the only means to obtain the latest forecast and warning information. Access to the service may be interrupted or delayed from time to time, update may also experience occasional gaps. Please refer to GMDSS OFFICIAL sources, Inmarsat SafetyNET or international NAVTEX services, for more complete information ========== FQZA31 FAPR 161700 SECURITE: ========= WEATHER BULLETIN FOR THE HIGH SEAS FOR METAREA VII. ISSUED BY THE SOUTH AFRICAN WEATHER SERVICE ON THE 16th MAY 2008 AT 17:00 UTC. FOR SOUTHEAST SECTOR OF METAREA VII, PREPARED BY REUNION, SEE AREA 2 BELOW. NOTE: WX OBSERVATIONS. ====================== COULD ALL VESSELS EXPERIENCING UNEXPECTED, SEVERE WX/SEA STATE PLESE MAKE EVERY EFFORT TO REPORT THIS TO SAWS VIA CAPE TOWN RADIO. AREA 1: ======= FORECAST VALID FROM 162200 to 172200 UTC. WIND IN KNOTS, WAVE HEIGHTS IN METRES. NO SEA STATE GIVEN IF WAVES LESS THAN 3M. NOTE THE WIND SPEEDS QUOTED HERE ARE THE EXPECTED AVERAGE SPEEDS. INDIVIDUAL GUSTS MAY EXCEED THESE VALUES BY A FACTOR OF UP TO 1.5. WAVE HEIGHTS ARE SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHTS WHICH MAY BE ACCOMPANIED BY INDIVIDUAL WAVES 1.5 TO 2.0 TIMES HIGHER. GALE WARNING(S): ================ 1. TRISTAN : NW 30 to 40 in the west, spreading eastwards by Saturday afternoon, while becoming SW 30 to 40 in the west, spreading over the central part by Saturday night. 2. MARION FORTIES EAST: W to NW 35 in the south. SYNOPTIC SITUATION AT 161200 UTC ================================= High 1026 hPa 26s05w High 1030 hPa 33s64e Low 946 hPa 53s08w Low 942 hPa 57s17w Low 958 hPa 56s15e Low 990 hPa 51s46e Low 990 hPa 48s56e 1. Cold Front: 33s44w 40s26w 45s14w 53s08w 57s17w 2. Cold Front: 32s06e 35s14e 40s23e 45s26e 50s27e 56s15e 3. Cold Front: 34s40e 40s54e 45s61e 48s56e 51s46e AREA FORECAST ============= ASCENSION (06S/15S, 00E/20W) WIND : SE to E 15 to 25. VIS : Good. SEA STATE: 2.5 to 3m, with S swell. ANGOLA (06S/15S, 00E/WEST COAST) WIND : S to SE 10 to 20 but SW 05 in the extreme east. VIS : Good. ST HELENA (15S/30S, 00E/20W) WIND : W to SW 10 to 20 in the south, otherwise SE 10 to 20, reaching 25 in the extreme north. VIS : Good. SEA STATE: 2.5 to 3m, reaching 3.5 to 4.5m in the south-east today, mainly SSW swell. TRADES (15S/30S, 00E/WEST COAST) WIND : S to SE 10 to 20, reaching 25 in the east. VIS : Good. SEA STATE: 2.5 to 3.5m, reaching 4 to 5m in the south with mainly SW swell. TRISTAN (30S/40S, 00E/20W) WIND : NW 20 to 30 reaching 30 to 40 in the west, spreading eastwards by Saturday afternoon, while becoming SW 30 to 40 in the west, spreading over the central part by Saturday night. VIS : Poor in rain and showers, clearing in the west later. SEA STATE: 4 to 6m, reaching 7m in the south with SW swell. CAPE WEST (30S/40S, 00E/20E) WIND : SE 10 to 20 in the north-east, otherwise W to NW 10 to 20 reaching 25 to 30 in the south-west. VIS : Poor in rain and showers in the south. SEA STATE: 5 to 7m, with mainly long period SW swell. CAPE EAST (32.5s/40s, 20E/50E) WIND : SW 15 to 25 in the east, otherwise SW 15 to 25 but SE to NE 15 to 25 in the north-west. VIS : Poor in rain and showers in the east. SEA STATE: 2.5 to 3.5m reaching 5 to 7m in the west, spreading over the central part by Saturday evening with mainly long period SW swell. DURBAN EAST (25S/32.5S, EAST COAST/55E) WIND : NW to NE 10 to 20 reaching 25 in the south-east at first but SW to SE 10 to 15 in the west, becoming NE 10 to 20 in the extreme south-west by Saturday evening. VIS : Good but moderate in showers in the south-east. SEA STATE: 4 to 6m in the extreme south-west by Saturday night, with mainly long period SW swell. MOZAMBIQUE CHANNEL: WIND : S to SE 10 to 15 but 15 to 25 in the north, spreading southwards by Saturday evening. VIS : Good but moderate in showers in the north. SEA STATE: 2 to 3m, with SSW swell. MADAGASCAR EAST (10S/25S, EAST COAST/55E) WIND : SE 15 to 25. VIS : Moderate in showers. SEA STATE: 2.5 to 3.5m, SSW swell. MARION FORTIES EAST (40S/50S, 35E/50E) WIND : W to NW 20 to 30, reaching 35 in the south. VIS : Poor in intermittent rain and showers. SEA STATE: 3.5 to 4.5m, reaching 5 to 6m in the west by Saturday night with mainly SW swell. AREA 2: ======= MARINE METEOROLOGICAL BULLETIN FROM METEO-FRANCE/LA REUNION ON AREA ACK (AMSTERDAM-CROZET-KERGUELEN) DATE : 16/05/2008 UTC TIME : 1700 AVERAGED WIND SPEED ON BEAUFORT SCALE Wind gusts may be about 40% stronger than the averages given here. PART 1: STORM WARNING : Nil, but gale force 8 running or expected over WAM and KER, and strong gale force 9 running over CRO. PART 2: GENERAL SYNOPSIS, 08/05/16 AT 1200 UTC : - The Cold front CF and the Secondary cold front leave the area. - Cold front CG axis 34S/35E, 37S/47E, 42S/57E, 47S/60E, 49S/58E, 51S/50E, and warm front WG axis 47S/60E, 46S/64E, 44S/67E, with low 994 hPa near 50S/47E, moving Eastward 30/35 kt. - High 1028 hPa near 32S/57E with a Southeastward ridge, movong Eastward 10/15 kt. - Another cold front arrives over far western area in end of period. PART 3: FORECAST FOR 24 HOURS FROM 08/05/16 AT 1800 UTC TO 08/05/17 AT 1800 UTC : WAM (30S/40S,50E/65E) : Rains, squalls and showers in CG. WIND : North of 35S : anticlockwise 2 to 5, setting up westerly 3/5. South of 35S : Northwesterly 6/7 ahead the front, reaching 8 in vicinity of the front, then backing Southwest 4/5 behind, then veering westerly 3/5 during the day. Gusts in squalls. SEA : Moderate, but Rough to very rough over southern area this night. Moderate west swell to heavy over southern area. VIS : Poor in rains, squalls and showers. AMS (30S/40S,65E/80E) : Showers, then frontal rains WIND : Southerly 4/5, becoming anticlockwise 3 to 5 in the ridge then setting up N-W 4 to 7 from North to South ahead CG, becoming variable 2/3 over North. SEA : Moderate, temporarily Rough to very rough. Moderate to heavy West to Southwest swell. VIS : Poor under precipitations. CRO (40S/50S,50E/65E) : Rains, squalls and showers in CG then showers. WIND : Northwest 7/8 ahead CG, reaching 9 in vicinity of the front; over eastern area, backing West 5/6 behind from western area, decreasing 4/5, then veering Northerly 4/5 over western area in end of period. Gusts in squalls. SEA : Rough to very rough, locally high, becoming moderate. Moderate to heavy Westerly swell. VIS : Poor in precipitations. KER (40S/50S,65E/80E) : Frontal rain and showers. WIND : Westerly 5/7, decreasing temporarily 3/4, veering Northwest 7/8 Ahead CG then clockwise 5 to 7 behind during the day. SEA : Rough to very rough. Moderate to heavy crossed swells. VIS : Poor in rains and showers. ==========